Declining Enrollment Frequently Asked Questions

An important consideration when looking at county population data is that BVSD only occupies the southern two-thirds of Boulder County and does not include the large growing community of Longmont, which greatly skews population growth in County estimates. When looking at the major population centers within BVSD, the story is different. Although long-term projections at the municipal level aren't readily available, most of these population centers have shown stagnant or declining populations between 2020 and 2024 according to State Demographer estimates. Only Lafayette and Erie had some growth over that timeframe with only Erie having significant growth.   

When we look at data specific to BVSD, several trends stand out. Most prominent is that population growth is not equal for all age groups. When comparing the 2010 and 2020 Census population for BVSD, the largest growth segment is those residents aged 60 and above, with some growth among young adults (impacted by CU enrollment expansions). However, the population of children under 10 years old has shrunk by over 1,600 people, which is a trend expected to continue as the number of births remains very low. The average number of births per woman (Total Fertility Rate) also declined from 1.4 children per woman to 1.0 during that time frame. While student-aged populations are in decline, the growing population above 60 is expected to further constrain housing turnover and opportunities for people with children to find suitable housing within BVSD. 

BVSD does raise substantial local tax revenue—but that doesn’t mean the district has unlimited money to spend. In Colorado, school funding is based on a state formula, not just property taxes. That formula is built largely on how many students a district serves. So when enrollment declines, funding for operating costs declines too. Fewer students = fewer dollars for teachers, staff, and programs. Even if property taxes go up due to increasing property values, that doesn’t automatically give the district more flexible funding. In fact, the system works in a way that can feel counterintuitive: When local property tax revenue increases due to increasing property values, the state often contributes less. Therefore, overall funding doesn’t necessarily rise accordingly. At the same time, many costs don’t shrink as quickly as enrollment—there are still buildings to operate and systems and staff needed to support the students still in the building. So even in a community with high property taxes, declining enrollment means fewer resources to support the same system, unless changes are made. Voter approved local property tax increases for operating costs are capped by state statute, and BVSD voters have generously approved the maximum amount allowed. Property taxes for capital construction debt is also approved locally. Property taxes increase to pay those annual principal and interest costs in accordance with the approved ballot language. In summary, property taxes can increase due to rising property values and locally approved tax increases. Rising property taxes don't necessarily provide additional operating dollars to cover costs that increase with inflation, contracts and statutory requirements. 

Fundraising is not a sustainable solution for addressing declining enrollment or keeping schools open long term. The financial impact of under-enrolled schools is significant and ongoing. It includes staffing, building operations, and the full range of services required to run a school. These are sizable, recurring, structural costs that would need to be covered year after year. Relying on fundraising to sustain schools would create inequities across the district and would not provide the long-term stability needed to ensure a high-quality experience for all students. Our responsibility is to make decisions that are sustainable, equitable, and reliable over time, so every student, in every school, has access to the resources and opportunities they need to succeed.

Decisions are expected to be made in fall 2026. The district is currently in a community engagement phase, gathering input through the spring. Feedback will be summarized and shared with the Board of Education in June, followed by the development of options over the summer. The Board is expected to begin reviewing those options in August, with potential action occurring later in the fall depending on the Board’s direction and the pace of the process.

The Board of Education will make the final decisions. District staff are responsible for gathering community input and developing options for the Board to consider. 

Specific criteria have not yet been established yet. The district is first gathering input on community values, priorities, and tradeoffs, which will inform the development of recommendations.

School performance is not a driver of this process because BVSD schools are performing at historically high levels. The challenge is not school quality, it is fewer school age children living in the district and surrounding area and the impact that has on resources and programming.

The district has taken a number of steps to attract and retain students, including expanding programming, increasing transparency in its enrollment process, hosting district-wide showcases, and offering enrollment preferences for families who work within the boundaries of the district. These efforts have helped. In fact, nearly 10% of BVSD's current students open-enrolled into our schools from neighboring districts. However, we know that some families will always perfer private schools or homeschooling. Declining enrollment in BVSD is due to declining birth rates coupled with the high-cost and low inventory of single-family housing, not failing schools. 

The district recognizes that some programs, including those serving students with specialized needs, have unique constraints. Feedback from families is helping inform how these programs are considered. The district is committed to ensuring continued access and support for these students.

No decisions have been made about specific buildings. This will be determined as part of the later planning phases and Board decisions.

The goal is not simply to fill buildings—it is to ensure schools have sufficient enrollment to sustain programming, staffing, and student supports. When enrollment declines, schools may lose access to full-time specialists, collaborative teaching teams, and consistent programming. School leaders, teachers, and school staff are working very hard to support student learning despite declining resources. However, this level of effort is not sustainable, and it will only get harder as enrollment continues to decinine. Maintaining adequate enrollment helps preserve the quality of the student experience. 

The district recognizes the impact of the Marshall Fire both related to enrollment and emotional trauma. At this time, data indicates that families who were relocated due to the fire have returned if they were inclined to do so and that enrollment in the area has normalized related to the temporary shifts due to the fire. 

We realize that the disruption of school consolidations or closures will be difficult for families and staff, and perhaps more so for members of our BVSD community who experienced the upheaval of the Marshal Fire. We are mindful of supporting the various needs of our community through transition and this will be an important part of our work. 

Housing affordability is a major factor influencing enrollment and is largely outside the district’s direct control. The district is engaging with municipalities and regional partners to better understand and align around long-term planning, but demographic and housing trends remain a broader community challenge.

Due to their unique geographic circumstances, mountain schools require differentiated decisions and are not part of the current process.  

The district has learned that families make choices for a variety of reasons, including convenience of school locations, specific family needs, preference for alternative education models, online learning, or preference for private schools. Since the pandemic, interest in these options has increased. At the same time, BVSD continues to attract nearly twice as many students than it loses to surrounding districts.

Equity is a foundational value in BVSD and will be a key consideration in developing options. The district is engaging broadly with the community to understand impacts and priorities, with a focus on ensuring that decisions support strong outcomes and access to resources for all students. The engagement process has been intentionally designed to encourage participation and allow all voices to be heard. When needed, we are providing tailored opportunities for input to school communities that have not felt comfortable participating in the scheduled engagement sessions. 

The district recognizes that transitions can be challenging. The goal is to ensure that, over time, students have access to more consistent programming, more options for friends and social connections, and more robust support services. Transition planning and support for students and families will be part of implementation. Planning for a thoughtful and well supported transition will be part of the work of developing options. 

No—larger schools do not necessarily mean larger class sizes. What larger schools provide is more students per grade level, which allows the district to distribute students across more teachers. This often leads to more consistent class sizes, not bigger ones. In smaller schools with only one or two classes per grade, even small changes in enrollment can significantly increase class size in a single classroom. Larger schools create more flexibility to balance class sizes and absorb those changes more smoothly.

We are intentionally designing this process so decisions are not driven by the loudest voices. We are gathering input in multiple ways—small group discussions, surveys, and polling—to make sure we hear from a broad cross-section of our community, including people who may not typically speak up publicly. We recognize that some individuals or groups may try to amplify their perspectives through emails, public comment, or organized outreach. We see and value that input, but it will not be what drives our decisions. Our goal is to understand the collective values and priorities of the entire community and use that to inform thoughtful, balanced decisions.